What Global Population Decline Means for the Workforce
Dan Schawbel
LinkedIn Top Voice, New York Times Bestselling Author, Managing Partner of Workplace Intelligence, Led 75+ Workplace Research Studies
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For decades, rising populations across the world were taken as a given. Each year, more children were born than the one before, leading to steady global population growth. However, this trend has now begun to shift in a historic reversal. Fertility rates are dropping substantially, leading to contracting populations in many nations rather than continued expansion. This decline in human capital has profound implications for economies and workforces around the world.
Global fertility rates have declined by half since 1960, down to just 2.4 births per woman as of 2020. That figure is below the 2.1 replacement fertility level required for a stable population that isn't growing or shrinking over time. According to recent projections from the United Nations, the global population growth rate is slowing rapidly, and the total world population is expected to peak around 2086 at 10.4 billion before entering a period of sustained decline due to the low fertility rates already being experienced.
This demographic shift is already well underway across much of the developed world. Nations like Japan, South Korea, Spain, Italy, and nearly all of Europe are grappling with contracting populations as low birth rates coincide with increasing life expectancies. Even some still rapidly growing nations like China and India have seen birth rates plummet in just the last few decades as families opt to have fewer children. The effects are stark - nearly 74% of the global population now lives in a country with below-replacement fertility rates.
So, what does this mean for labor forces around the world? Both potential short-term benefits and major longer-term challenges abound.
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Co-Founder, Director Of Operations at Wentworth Executive Recruiting | Co-Founder, Arrangr.com | Author, A Mindful Career
1moIt seems the wild card in this is artificial intelligence.
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1moDemographics bring challenges to those who work in prison; one is the aging offender population. An aging population of people serving long terms in prisons, a shrinking workforce of people desiring to work in institutional corrections and rehabilitation programs not keeping up with the workforce.
Driving Exceptional Client Experiences and Positive Impact. Customer Success Manager | Responsible Technology Advocate | Intrinsic Learner | Cross Generational Collaborator | Yoga Lover
1moVern Six - this article reconfirms the importance of maintaining a pool of qualified candidates across diverse age ranges.
Engineering | Program Management | Aerospace & Defense | Automobile | Industrial Products
1moValuable topic. Changing scenarios of Global Population has high influence in framing future strategies for workforce and workplace thus society at large.
Director Leadership Development @ Beacon | People Development, Talent Strategy
1moInteresting insights on the future of the workplace!